RT’s guide to the US midterm elections: what’s at stake and why presidents lose

With US President Donald Trump’s Republicans tied to an unpopular war and record high gas prices, the party is fighting to maintain control over Congress in Tuesday’s midterm elections. RT explains the election process, examines the polls, and asks whether Democrats can pull off a ‘blue wave’ – and if anything will change.

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Early US midterm voting shatters record

How do the midterm elections work?

Every four years, halfway through a presidential term, Americans vote on which party gets to control the House of Representatives and Senate. Representatives serve a two-year term, so all 435 seats in the lower house are up for grabs; Senators serve for six years, and this year 35 seats in the upper house are being contested. Voters in 36 out of 50 states will also choose their governors on Tuesday.

More than 51 million Americans have already cast their ballots, surpassing the previous early voting record set in 2022.

The Republican Party currently holds a 218-214 seat majority in the House and a 53-47 majority in the Senate. Maintaining this razor-thin majority, particularly in the House, is of vital importance to Trump. Should they win one or both houses of Congress, the Democrats have vowed to launch multiple investigations into the president’s personal finances, handling of the Epstein files, and prosecution of the war on Iran, all with a view to impeaching Trump.

With Congress in their hands, Democrats could stymie Trump’s legislative agenda, rendering him a lame duck president for his remaining two years in the White House.

Does every US president lose the midterms?

Although voters are technically choosing which candidates to represent their districts and states in Washington, the US two-party system effectively makes every midterm election a referendum on the president’s first two years in office. Voters punish Republican presidents by voting Democrat, and vice-versa, and it’s become a widely-accepted truism that every president loses some seats in the midterms.

In 20 out of 23 midterm elections since 1934, the president’s party has lost seats in the House. With fewer seats changing hands, the Senate is less volatile: since 1934, the president’s party has lost seats in 15 out of 23 midterms.

“The president always loses for whatever reason, the midterms, whoever it is, Republican, Democrat, great president, lousy president,”

Trump told reporters in late October. However, accepting defeat as a foregone conclusion ignores the real issues shaping this year’s elections.

What are the key midterm election issues in 2026?

It’s the economy.

Democrats and Republicans alike see the economy as the number one issue in the elections, according to a Pew Research survey taken in October. On economic matters, Trump is on shaky ground. The US-Israeli war on Iran and the resulting blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed gasoline prices to a record high of $4.29 per gallon on the eve of the vote. According to an AP poll published on Monday, 65% of US adults blame higher costs on Trump’s policies, with six in ten Republicans disapproving of his handling of the cost of living.

Data from a Pew Research survey, published October 8, 2026 ©  Pew Research

Majorities of Democrats and Republicans alike told Pew that they view

“the future of democracy”

as a key issue in their vote, although with both parties routinely accusing each other of threatening democracy itself, this is now par for the course in American elections.

What else?

Behind these top two issues, Democrat voters rate healthcare, education, and foreign policy as their next three election-deciding issues. Republicans highlighted immigration, violent crime, and government overreach. On the latter three, Trump and the GOP can show some clear victories: illegal border crossings have fallen to essentially zero; the US foreign-born population has dropped by more than 2.3 million since Trump took office; violent crime fell 9.3% in 2025; and Trump has dramatically reined in the scope of the US government, closing USAID, firing more than 250,000 federal bureaucrats, and slashing funding to nearly two dozen government departments and agencies.

What are the most important midterm races to watch?

With a win in the House almost certainly on the cards, RT news anchor Rick Sanchez has singled out Michigan, Maine, North Carolina, and Texas as

“the four key states that are going to make or break”

the Democrats’ bid for the Senate.

In Michigan, progressive Muslim Democrat Abdul el-Sayed is leading former Rep. Mike Rogers by around four points in a showdown that’s spiraled into a national debate on the influence of the powerful Israel lobby – and Michigan’s rapidly changing demographics.

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Democrats don’t know how to handle war, things will get worse if Republicans lose midterms (Bo Loudon)

Texas hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1988, but James Talarico could buck that trend. The fact that Talarico – a man who describes himself as a

“radical feminist”

and a

“Christian who hates Christianity”

– is leading Republican Ken Paxton by around four points is testament either to Texas’ shifting demographics (the state’s Hispanic population swinging the vote to the Democrats) or broader dissatisfaction with the GOP.

In Maine, five-term Senator Susan Collins – a Republican critic of Trump – is on track to finally lose her seat to Troy Jackson. Maine is unusual in that its electorate has repeatedly elected Collins, despite choosing Democrats in every presidential election since 1992. Collins’ flagging popularity can be interpreted either as a grim bellwether for the GOP, or a sign that after nearly 30 years in the Senate, voters simply want a change of face.

With Republican Senator Thom Tillis set to retire, Tuesday’s election in North Carolina is a showdown between former Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, and former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley. With voters there overwhelmingly highlighting the economy as their top issue, Cooper’s 11-point lead over Whatley suggests that high prices may cost Trump dearly nationwide.

How Israel and Iran are looming over the midterms

Republicans and Democrats disagree strongly on Trump’s handling of the conflict in Iran, but few Democrat leaders have questioned the premise of intervening against Tehran in the first place. Although Democratic members of Congress have overwhelmingly backed resolutions that would prohibit military action against Iran, these resolutions have been symbolic, designed-to-fail affairs.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has focused his criticisms on the cost of the war and the fact that Trump embarked on it without seeking Congressional approval, while refusing to state whether he’d push to cut funding for the war. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer – a self-described

“guardian of the people of Israel”

– has taken a similar line, echoing Trump’s assertion that

“Iran must never be allowed to attain a nuclear weapon,”

and attacking the president for going to war without an

“exit strategy.”

Opposition to the war, and to Israel’s outsized influence on American politics more broadly, has come from the fringes of both parties. However, the Republican and Democrat establishment has worked to sideline these voices. On the Republican side, the Israel lobby invested record sums of money to oust Rep. Thomas Massie in a primary election earlier this year, after he voted against military aid to Israel and in favor of making the most powerful Israel lobby group – AIPAC – register as a foreign agent.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene faced a similar lobbying campaign after she described the war in Gaza as a

“genocide,”

and resigned from Congress in January following a broader feud with Trump and the Republican establishment.

For anyone who is confused about why Democrats are likely to win.

Here’s your starter pack of reasons.

We tried to stop all this.

But Trump doesn’t like me and Massie. 🤷‍♀️

He likes his Epstein friends and Netanyahu.

— Former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene🇺🇸 (@FmrRepMTG)

November 1, 2026

Joe Kent followed suit two months later, leaving his post at the National Counterterrorism Center in March. In a resignation letter to Trump, Kent argued that

“Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”

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Israel critic wins US Senate primary despite record AIPAC spending on rival (VIDEOS)

On the Democrat side, Rep. Haley Stevens withdrew her endorsement of Abdul el-Sayed on Sunday, over el-Sayed’s criticism of Israel. Earlier this year, AIPAC bankrolled Stevens’ failed primary campaign against El-Sayed, who has called for an end to military aid to Israel. After breaking party ranks with el-Sayed, Stevens – who once claimed that Israel

“visits me in my dreams”

– endorsed Mike Rogers.

AIPAC, the Republican Jewish Coalition, J Street, and other pro-Israel groups spend vast sums of money to enforce this kind of ideological conformity. 354 of the 433 sitting members of the House have taken campaign funding from AIPAC alone, according to figures compiled by ChamberLight, while every sitting US Senator has taken funds from at least one of these groups.

“If you don’t stand with the Jewish community, if you don’t stand with Israel, Republican or Democrat, the RJC will work to defeat you,”

the Republican Jewish Coalition said in 2024.

Is the time right for a third party to break through in the US?

The alignment of Republicans and Democrats on matters of war and foreign influence are increasingly at odds with the views of their voters. American sympathy for Israel vis-a-vis the Palestinians is at an

all-time low

, more than half of all Americans want military aid to Israel

cut off or decreased

, and 71% of Americans told Ipsos in April that they want nothing to do with Israel’s various Middle Eastern conflicts.

Third parties have played only a minor role in US politics in recent history, serving primarily to siphon votes from Democrats or Republicans. Moreover, while 65% of respondents told the Independent Center that they would

“be likely to vote for a strong, well-funded independent candidate,”

only 6% plan to do so on Tuesday.

Conservative journalist Tucker Carlson is frequently cited as a potential third party leader. A nationalist and staunch critic of Israel, Carlson has met with progressive Democrats and Republican outsiders like Massie and Greene, but despite releasing a

ten-point vision for a post-MAGA reimagining

of the American right, he has denied harboring any plans of running for office.

How does Russia view the midterm elections?

Despite the claims of ‘Russian meddling’ and ‘Russian collusion’ thrown at Trump and the GOP during every election since the former real estate developer famously came down the golden escalator in 2015, Moscow has little riding on Tuesday’s vote. Even if Democrats – who are generally more supportive of US aid for Ukraine – were to take Congress, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted on Monday that

“President Trump will remain president until the end of his term and will continue to conduct his foreign policy.”

The elections, Peskov added, are an internal affair for the US.

How is RT covering the elections?

RT will be covering the elections live all day, from the moment voting begins until long after the last polls close. Rick Sanchez will be reporting from Moscow, Ben Swann from Miami, and Scottie Nell Hughes and John Kiriakou will be live in Washington. For the latest developments and political drama, stick with RT.