Iran won’t surrender. Can Russia give Trump another way out?

On November 5, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran Mohsen Rezaei in the Kremlin during the official’s working visit to Moscow. According to the Kremlin, the two sides discussed the development of bilateral cooperation under the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, as well as international and regional issues, with a particular focus on the situation in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. The Kremlin also confirmed that Rezaei conveyed a message from the Supreme Leader of Iran Mojtaba Khamenei.

The fact that the meeting was also attended by Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov and Head of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Igor Kostyukov is quite notable. While the details of the conversation have not been disclosed, Kostyukov’s presence suggests that the discussions likely extended beyond political relations to include urgent security matters, which are of paramount concern for Iran.

Rezaei is an influential figure in Iran’s military and political landscape. As the former commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), he has a strong reputation in military circles; he also has longstanding ties to influential clerics. Rezaei’s appointment as Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and the task entrusted to him – that of personally delivering Khamenei’s message to Vladimir Putin – indicate the high level of trust placed in him by the Supreme Leader of Iran. Therefore, his trip to Moscow carries substantial weight. Rezaei advocates for a robust strategic alignment between Iran, Russia, and China, viewing these relationships as crucial for Iran’s security and independent foreign policy. His visit reaffirms that the strengthening of ties with Moscow is supported at the highest level in Tehran.

Read more

Would President Vance really ditch Israel?

Another important aspect is the speed with which Rezaei arrived in Moscow. A phone call between Putin and Rezaei occurred on November 2, and just three days later, it was followed by the in-person meeting, in the course of which the message from the Supreme Leader was delivered. This signals that the matter could not be resolved remotely or through standard diplomatic channels. Such urgency is understandable. After eight months of war, both the US and Iran are exploring potential diplomatic breakthroughs while also bracing for renewed hostilities. American forces in the region are poised for a brief, intense campaign should US President Donald Trump authorize it. Trump himself has stated that he currently has no plans for new strikes but remains ready to act if necessary. However, Tehran understands that such assurances do not preclude future attacks. Consequently, the Iranian leadership cannot trust Washington’s public statements, but must take into account the likelihood of further escalation and determine what kind of support the country can count on.

This uncertainty is exacerbated by discussions surrounding the potential use of weapons of mass destruction. Tucker Carlson has recently claimed that Trump is considering a nuclear strike on a site near Natanz, one of Iran’s key nuclear facilities. Trump responded that there is no need for such an attack; no further confirmation of Carlson’s claims has emerged. While American officials cited by major Western outlets assure that Washington has no intention of using nuclear weapons, such reassurances are insufficient for Tehran.

At the same time, a debate about chemical weapons is unfolding. According to recent reports, Israel has informed the US that Iran is allegedly contemplating the use of chemical weapons. Some American officials view these reports as an attempt to pressure Washington into resuming large-scale military operations. Meanwhile, the Gulf countries have reacted to the news with skepticism. Iran itself categorically denies possessing any chemical weapons. Even if the likelihood of extreme scenarios is low, such discussions force the Iranian leadership to consider worst-case scenarios and seek external support.

Read more

Did Israel lose the US midterms?

Mohsen Rezaei’s visit to Moscow takes on special significance amid evolving US-Russia relations. Trump explained his decision not to impose new sanctions on Russia by the desire not to disrupt negotiations over Ukraine. Washington is interested in maintaining dialogue with Moscow, and Russia is also open to dialogue. However, Russia has no intention of sacrificing its relationship with Tehran. Russia’s public reception of the Iranian envoy sends a clear message to those who hope that the warming ties between Russia and the US might come at Iran’s expense or that Russia may abandon its interests to please the White House. The message is clear: Moscow will choose its partners independently, and its relationship with Tehran holds intrinsic value. For the Iranian leadership, this meeting represents an opportunity to reaffirm mutual interest in collaboration and discuss how to advance it in the current circumstances.

There’s also a pragmatic aspect. As Russia’s role in the Iran issue becomes more prominent, there are more reasons for Moscow to be involved in the resolution of the conflict. On October 21, President Putin expressed Russia’s readiness to assist in addressing the crisis surrounding Iran. High-level contacts with Tehran lend weight to this statement ahead of possible negotiations: discussions are underway regarding a meeting between leaders, including Putin and Trump, on the sidelines of the APEC summit, which will be held on November 18-19.

Russia has the means to facilitate a resolution, and the absence of mutual defense obligations with Iran doesn’t negate that capacity. Moscow maintains ties with Tehran while also engaging with Washington. This position enables Russia to act as a mediator and allows it to offer a platform for talks, which Iran is keen to pursue, as achieving lasting peace is crucial for avoiding further military action.

Read more

A new Islamic defense axis? Why India is watching the Badr accord closely

Following the Republicans’ defeat in the midterm elections, Trump has even more reasons to seek a diplomatic solution. The war in Iran has contributed to voter dissatisfaction, and its continuation may lead to heavier domestic political losses. However, there is also a chance that the US president may resort to military action to demonstrate resolve and prove that he can achieve his goals despite any opposition. Even so, another bombing campaign won’t secure victory for Trump. If Tehran withstands the pressure again and refuses to accept US terms, Trump will have to explain why the use of force didn’t yield the promised results. The political fallout would hit both him and the Republican Party hard. In this context, Russian mediation could also prove beneficial for Washington. Moscow may help the two sides form agreements that allow Iran to safeguard its interests while giving Trump a diplomatic win to present to the American public. This would require both sides to be open to compromise, but there is still room for diplomacy.

Additional opportunities emerge as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu loses his political standing. Netanyahu has been the main driver of the strategy of military pressure on Iran and the involvement of the US in the conflict. Following the elections, however, he faces a real threat of losing his position: Gadi Eisenkot holds an edge in the race to form a new government. While a shift in power isn’t guaranteed just yet, Netanyahu’s situation has certainly become more precarious. His departure wouldn’t resolve the underlying tensions between Israel and Iran, but it might alleviate some of the pressure on Washington.

Against this backdrop, Rezaei’s visit to Moscow takes on significant meaning. It signals Tehran’s reliance on Russia as its primary political partner and a potential ally that may help resolve the crisis. For Moscow, this represents an opportunity to strengthen its ties with Iran and advocate for solutions that align with its own security interests in the region.