Gulf's New Boss: 3 Scenarios After the Ceasefire Pause

Extended truce, renewed war, or endless strikes – each scenario reshapes the region in Iran's favor. The almost apocalyptic rhetoric from US President Donald Trump, who threatened that 'a whole civilization will die tonight,' suddenly gave way to de-escalation. By the evening of April 7, it was announced that the US and Iran had agreed to a two-week ceasefire; shortly afterward, Israel confirmed it would join. Over these two weeks, negotiations toward a permanent peace deal are due to be held with Pakistan acting as mediator. This is exactly the scenario seen as most likely from the conflict's beginning.

The war could still resume, but for now, things appear to be moving toward a reality where the Persian Gulf is, in fact, becoming Persian. Iran now effectively controls shipping in the Gulf and holds the Arab oil monarchies at risk – and the US appears to be accepting that. In Scenario 1, a prolonged ceasefire, if the pause in hostilities lasts months or even years, Arab states will prioritize building a new generation of air defense with cheap, mass-produced interceptors, and diversifying logistics with new pipelines to the Red Sea to break free from Iran's Strait of Hormuz chokehold.

Yet, the Gulf's geography makes full protection impossible. Across over 500 nautical miles, every shipping lane is within Iran's reach, and coastal infrastructure sits exposed. Defending all of that from the sea is extremely difficult, and for the time being, Arab states will likely choose to pay for safe passage. At the end of the day, they don't really care who provides that security umbrella: they used to pay the US; now they'll pay Iran. The price isn't even that steep – reportedly around $2 million per supertanker, which is just 2-3% of the oil's value onboard, and ultimately, buyers will foot the bill.