US-Iran Ceasefire Deal: Israel Excluded and Global Costs

The announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, following over a month of coordinated attacks with Israel, has ignited a political firestorm in Jerusalem, where Israeli lawmakers are calling it a 'total disaster' and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's worst strategic failure. The deal, negotiated directly by Washington and Tehran without Israeli participation, includes key points such as Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, acceptance of its uranium enrichment, the lifting of sanctions, and a cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Israeli operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah. While Netanyahu's office expressed support for Trump's decision, maintaining that Israel will continue its military campaign, opposition leader Yair Lapid denounces the country's exclusion from decisions affecting its national security, highlighting a major political misstep.

This provisional ceasefire not only redefines regional dynamics but also fundamentally alters global perceptions of American power. By seeking a negotiated exit from a rapidly escalating conflict, the Trump administration incurs significant costs in terms of credibility and international leadership. The agreement, based on a 10-point plan from Iran, suggests substantial concessions by Washington, which could be interpreted as either weakness or strategic pragmatism, depending on the perspective. This move reflects a potential reorientation of U.S. foreign policy, prioritizing de-escalation over more confrontational stances, with implications for traditional allies like Israel.

Israel's exclusion from the negotiations has exacerbated internal tensions, with figures like former minister Yair Golan joining the criticism. This exposes fractures in Israel's national security strategy, where Netanyahu faces accusations of failing to achieve any of his stated goals. As Israel insists on continuing operations against Hezbollah, the deal may limit its room for maneuver, creating a scenario where Jerusalem is forced to act independently in a transforming regional context. The situation underscores the risks of fragmented foreign policy among close allies.

In the long term, this ceasefire could set a precedent for future negotiations in the Middle East, but it also raises questions about short-term stability. If talks fail, the resumption of hostilities could be more violent, given the buildup of tensions. Moreover, the perception that the United States is negotiating under pressure from Iran might encourage other regional actors to adopt harder stances, further complicating the geopolitical landscape. The success or failure of this provisional agreement will not only determine the course of the US-Iran conflict but also shape the future of alliances and power balances in the region.